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Forex Update, week ahead, 6 August 2023

As we step into a new week, market watchers are setting their sights on two key developments: upcoming inflation data from the US and China, and a revival of attention to credit ratings.

rush hour, people walking in a city centre

Inflation data, reported as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is a vital health check for an economy. High inflation could point to an overheating economy and potentially trigger central bank responses like rate hikes, which could strengthen the currency but cause a dip in stock markets. Conversely, low inflation could suggest an economy is lagging, which might lead to rate cuts or monetary easing, generally viewed as a positive for stock markets.

Additionally, credit ratings are back in the spotlight after Fitch's unexpected downgrade of the US's rating. Despite Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's dismissal of their importance, credit ratings impact a country's borrowing costs and investor risk appetite. A downgrade could cause investors to seek out safe-haven assets while increasing the country's debt servicing costs.

In short, these two indicators - inflation data and credit ratings - are part of a complex interplay of factors that influence the global financial landscape. As we move through the week, we'll explore how these elements might impact the markets and what trading opportunities they may present.

Credit Ratings Grab Center Stage

The surprise move by Fitch has once again catapulted credit ratings into relevance. This comes at a time when Germany and Switzerland are up for a credit rating review, the outcome of which will be closely watched by the global investment community.

Despite the ratings often being overlooked as ‘outdated’, the recent downgrade of the US by Fitch hints that these ratings could still spring some unexpected shocks.

Inflation Figures from the US and China Hold the Key

There's heightened anticipation around the upcoming key inflation data from the US and China. Markets are keen to observe a significant fall in the US core CPI, as this could reinforce their belief that the Federal Reserve has put an end to its rate hiking spree.

Simultaneously, eyes are on China, where it is speculated that the annual inflation rate might dip below zero for the first time in over two years, shedding light on the state of the global economy.

A Glimpse of the Week that Was

The past week was eventful with noteworthy market movements:

  • The US lost its AAA credit rating for the second time in history as Fitch downgraded it to AA+. This triggered a 'risk-off' trade causing Wall Street to retreat from its highs, a surge in safe-haven investments, and an eight-week low for the AUD/USD.

  • The Bank of England (BOE) hiked rates by 25 basis points, a move perceived as dovish given market expectations of a 50 basis point hike just a few weeks prior.

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the interest rate steady at 4.1% for the second consecutive month, fuelling speculations of a peak RBA rate.

The Week Ahead: Key Events and Themes to Watch

Going forward, the key events and themes dominating the market narrative include US and China inflation data, an extensive data dump from the UK, the US consumer confidence index, and the renewed focus on credit ratings.

Given Fitch's recent maneuver, investors will likely closely monitor the credit ratings of other economies. In particular, the upcoming reviews for Germany and Switzerland could garner significant attention.

In the US, all eyes will be on inflation data. Any unexpected rise in inflation figures may send shockwaves through the markets, further strengthening the US dollar. However, a faster-than-expected decline in inflation could stimulate equity markets, gold, and risk assets, while weakening the dollar.

On the other side of the Pacific, China's inflation data is set to be a key point of focus. The question looms whether China will print its first deflationary figure in over two years.

Lastly, the UK is in view following the BOE's relatively dovish 25 basis point hike, with markets now expecting the peak to be below 6%. More signs of economic weakness in the UK are needed for this less hawkish view of the BOE to persist.

Opportunities for Different Assets

Forex Trading: EURUSD, USD/JPY

The Forex market is likely to see increased volatility in pairs such as EURUSD and USD/JPY. A faster-than-expected drop in inflation could weaken the US dollar, leading to an appreciation of the Euro against the Dollar (EURUSD). Conversely, if the inflation figures hold steady or increase, we could see the Dollar strengthen against the Euro.

Similarly, in the USD/JPY pair, lower-than-expected inflation could prompt traders to favor the safe-haven yen over the dollar, causing USD/JPY to fall. Conversely, a higher inflation reading could boost the dollar, causing USD/JPY to rise.

Commodities: WTI Crude Oil, Gold

For commodity traders, particularly those trading WTI Crude Oil and Gold, inflation data will also hold significant importance. Typically, gold prices appreciate in times of high inflation as investors seek to preserve their wealth. However, lower-than-expected inflation could potentially dampen gold prices as the need for this 'safe-haven' asset diminishes.

Similarly, oil prices are often influenced by inflation data. WTI Crude Oil may rally on the back of higher inflation data, as it could be perceived as a sign of increased demand. Conversely, lower inflation data may put downward pressure on oil prices.

Equities: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones

Equity markets might also see significant movements. A faster drop in inflation can be seen as positive for equities as it alleviates concerns about the Fed's tightening policy, which could lead to a rally in indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones. However, an unexpected rise in inflation could spook the markets, potentially leading to a sell-off in these indices.

The Fed's Role

The rate at which the core CPI drops will significantly influence market expectations about the Federal Reserve's next moves. If the drop in inflation is substantial and swift, it would reinforce the market belief that the Federal Reserve has finished its cycle of rate hikes. This might lead to increased bets on their first rate cut, which would likely put downward pressure on the US dollar, and possibly drive a rally in risk assets, equities, and gold.

Given these dynamics, it's crucial for investors and traders to keep a close eye on the upcoming inflation data and adjust their strategies accordingly. As always, the ability to react swiftly to these changes in market conditions could unlock a range of trading opportunities.

Forex Update

As we navigate deeper into the second half of 2023, investors and policymakers around the globe continue to grapple with the unruly impact of inflation on global economies. This new week promises a series of significant developments that could alter the economic and currency landscapes worldwide. Stay connected for in-depth updates and analysis of Forex Update.

Trading and investing carry financial risks and could lead to partial or complete loss of funds. Invest only what you can afford to lose and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have doubts about your investment choices.

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