Week Ahead: US Inflation, BOC and RBNZ Meetings in Focus. Key Events and Themes for the Week. Weekly technical analysis.
Lets look at key events that will influence Chump Profit's daily signals in the upcoming week.
Volatility remains high as global investors face concerns about the inverted yield curves, hawkish central bank comments, and strong US economic data supporting the Fed's hawkish stance. Janet Yellen's visit to China also adds to the global sentiment, with potential ramifications for the following week.
Key events for the upcoming week include the release of US CPI data, monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Canada (BOC) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), as well as China's inflation and inflation expectations.
- Global bond yields continue to rise, and yield curves invert, indicating increased concerns about the global economy.
- The FOMC minutes revealed a more hawkish sentiment than expected, with support for rate hikes among "some members."
- US economic data remains strong, with positive ADP employment, falling layoffs, and expansion in the ISM services PMI. However, the manufacturing sector shows signs of deterioration.
- PMI surveys in China, Europe, and the US continue to weaken, with China's services PMI expanding at a slower pace.
- The RBA decided to pause its tightening cycle, citing high inflation but suggesting further monetary policy tightening may be necessary.
- Sino-US relations worsened as China announced restrictions on the export of metals used in semiconductors, coinciding with Janet Yellen's visit to Beijing.
Key Events and Themes for the Week:
1. US inflation: Following softer PCE inflation data, the focus turns to the US CPI report. Strong inflation figures could lead to increased USD buying, while softer figures may temper the hawkish sentiment.
2. Janet Yellen's trip to China: The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, particularly in the technology sector, make Yellen's visit crucial. The outcome of discussions on various issues could impact global sentiment.
3. BOC cash rate decision: After surprising markets with a hawkish hike in June, the BOC is expected to announce another 25bp hike. The decision will be influenced by inflation concerns and the persistently high demand in the economy.
4. RBNZ cash rate decision: The RBNZ is likely to pause its tightening cycle after multiple rate hikes. However, volatility can be expected in NZD and AUD pairs due to the RBNZ's unpredictable nature.
5. China inflation: The lending and price data from China will be closely watched, with a focus on the impact of sanctions, falling prices, and import-substitution.
6. Inflation expectations: Market participants will continue to monitor inflation expectations globally, as they play a crucial role in central banks' policy decisions.
Is the USD retreating?
The dollar's inflection point and its failure to gain traction despite rising US rates suggest a potential resumption of its underlying downtrend. The upcoming CPI release and disappointing jobs report may reinforce market scepticism about future rate hikes. Japanese officials' intervention threats and China's actions could also impact the dollar's overall direction.
Key Market Indicators to Watch:
EURUSD, USD/JPY, WTI Crude Oil, Gold, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, USD/CNH, USD/JPY, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, VIX, AUD/JPY, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, NZD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY, ASX 200
Weekly technical analysis.
The following trading suggestions and therefore signals can be applied to various time frames, depending on your trading strategy and preferences. The analysis focuses on the overall trend and key levels to monitor. Signal can be applied to different time frames:
1. Short-term traders (intraday): Use lower time frames such as 15-minute or 1-hour charts to identify entry and exit points based on price action and momentum indicators. Adjust take profit and stop loss levels accordingly.
2. Swing traders (several days to weeks): Utilize daily or 4-hour charts to capture medium-term trends. Monitor price movements and significant resistance levels to determine entry and exit points. Adjust take profit and stop loss levels accordingly.
3. Position traders (weeks to months): Refer to weekly or monthly charts to identify the longer-term trend and key levels. Consider holding positions for an extended period, aiming for higher profit targets. Adjust take profit and stop loss levels accordingly.
Remember, the choice of time frame depends on your trading strategy, risk tolerance, and the amount of time you are willing to dedicate to monitoring the market. It's essential to align the time frame with your trading goals and preferences.
Week Ahead: Forex GBP/USD,EUR/USD,AUD/USD
In conclusion, the week ahead will be dominated by US inflation data, the outcome of Janet Yellen's visit to China, and monetary policy decisions by the BOC and RBNZ. These events, along with China's inflation reports and inflation expectations, will shape market sentiment and potentially impact various currency pairs and stock indices.
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Please note that trading signals are based on market analysis and carry inherent risks. It is important to conduct thorough research, consider your risk tolerance, and use proper risk management strategies when executing trades.